Explaining the U.S. Economic Data – Part 3
Besides the data presented in the previous two articles part of the Trading Academy, the U.S. is still offering plenty of more data to interpret. Housing data, for example, is a different piece of economic information to look at and consider before interpreting the state of the economy. Nothing matters, though, more than the red-colored data. This data is not only the central bank’s decision and the CPI (Consumer Price Index) but also data like:
- Crude Oil Inventories. Released weekly and it strongly affects the USDCAD pair.
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Released monthly, around the middle of the month.
- Unemployment Claims. Released weekly, on every Thursday
- Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Released monthly, around the middle of the month.
- Core Durable Goods Orders. Released monthly, twenty-six days after the month ends.
- CB Consumer Confidence. Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the month.
- Final GDP. Released quarterly.
The above data is only a small part of the important data to be watched. These red events are the reason why the market is moving. If the technical analysis shows the direction the market is moving, the fundamental one is telling us the reason why the move started. Quite often, this reason comes from an economic news.
The Red Data
Economic data in this category is the one that is on the top of the Fed’s list. The examples listed above are only a few to consider, while everything related to the jobs creation and the monetary policy is of top importance. We cannot end the part dedicated to the Federal Reserve without looking at the two red events that matter the most for traders: the interest rate announcement, or the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement, and the CPI (Consumer Price Index Release).
Federal Funds Rate
The interest rate announcement or the FOMC statement is referring to the Federal Funds Rate. This is the name of the economic event as it appears in the economic calendar. It is scheduled eight times per year, making it roughly one release every six weeks. In between two interest rate decisions, the FOMC Minutes are released as well.
They show what the discussions were about and are released three weeks after the actual FOMC meeting. The example above shows the March 2017 meeting, and this meeting’s minutes will be released three weeks after. The Federal Funds outcome is the result of a vote cast by the FOMC members on where to set the target rate. The individual votes are published in the FOMC statement. Volatility is omnipresent during such releases. Trading algorithms are programmed to buy or sell the dollar against its Forex counterparts based on the wording to be found on the FOMC statement. On a bullish change, the algo’s are instructed to buy, and on a bearish one, the algo’s are instructed to sell. This is happening so fast that retail traders have a hard time following with the proper positioning.
You probably know by now that the CPI stands for inflation, and in economic terms, it represents the Consumer Price Index. No Federal Funds Rate is going to change unless the inflation is changing. A higher inflation will attract a hawkish Fed, hence a rate hike, while a lower inflationary level will end up with the Fed cutting rates. The lower the inflation goes, the more aggressive the Fed’s move will be. The opposite is true as well. The higher the inflation, the more aggressive the tightening cycle is going to be.
The CPI prices account for most inflation and show the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. As part of the Fed’s mandate, the targeted inflation is below or close to two percent. However, a central bank, Fed included, will never wait for inflation to come to target and then move on rates. What the central bank will do is to try to anticipate the inflation rise and be proactive, rather than reactive. A certain inflationary level is considered to be a normal one for an economy that is growing at a steady and stable rate. Higher inflation is easier to deal with, though than lower inflation. A lower inflation level is met with the central bank cutting rates. This is a normal move, after all. However, when inflation is threatening to move below zero, central banks become desperate. Below zero inflation is called deflation and spells trouble for an economy. An economy in a deflationary spiral is one that has no active consumer. In other words, it all starts with consumers not willing to spend much and with savers dominating. Commercial banks become reluctant to lend to people or businesses and will start parking their excess money at the central bank. For that, they will receive an interest rate. While this interest rate is normally far lower than the potential rate, the commercial banks could get from lending the money to the economy, parking the money at the central bank is less risky. To stimulate commercial banks to lend to the real economy, hence to get the consumer to spend some more, central banks are lowering the rates. Later, because deflation is a reality nowadays in many parts of the world like Japan, Switzerland, and Eurozone, the central banks are embarking in extraordinary monetary policies. Such extraordinary policies in the United States were the quantitative easing programs. The Federal Reserve cut the rates to prevent the financial crises in 2008 to deepen further. That is a normal move to be made. After that, to further stimulate a recovery, the central bank went into uncharted territory when it comes to monetary policy: it started to buy U.S. government bonds. For a central bank to buy its own government bonds is like printing money. The idea behind is to get inflation higher and, along with that, the economy. There were four attempts and the last one was indefinite, the so-called QE four ever package, that ran for an extended period until inflation picked up. Eventually, it did, the Fed ended the extraordinary accommodation, and now rates can rise again. In a sense, looking at the current 0.75% level for the Federal Funds Rate, it is still low enough to be considered accommodative. However, when compared with the rate a few years ago, we can say that a tightening cycle started when the Fed began to taper the quantitative easing program. In other parts of the world, the extraordinary monetary policies were even more extreme. Eurozone has the interest rate in negative territory, at -0.5%, Switzerland at -.075% and Nordic countries are following the same path. This is only meant to give you an example as to how for a central bank can move and what are its limitations. There is none!
Recommended Further Readings
- Fundamental Analysis – Explaining the U.S. Economic Data – Part 1
– Covering all data that matters from the United States – 1st part
- Fundamental Analysis – Explaining the U.S. Economic Data – Part 2
– – Covering all data that matters from the United States – 2nd part
- Fundamental Analysis – Explaining the Eurozone Economic Data
– Covering the economic data that matters for the Eur- pairs
- Fundamental Analysis – Explaining the United Kingdom Economic Data
– Covering the economic data that matters for the GBP pairs
- Fundamental Analysis – Explaining the Canadian Economic Data
– – Covering the economic data that matters for the CAD pairs
- Fundamental Analysis – Explaining the Australian Economic Data
– Covering the economic data that matters for the AUD pairs
- Fundamental Analysis – Explaining the Japanese Economic Data
– – Covering the economic data that matters for the JPY pairs
Other Educational Materials
- “Economic discontent and political behavior: The role of personal grievances and collective economic judgments in congressional voting.” Kinder, Donald R., and D. Roderick Kiewiet. American Journal of Political Science (1979): 495-527.
- Sources of US economic growth in a world of ideas. Jones CI. The American Economic Review. 2002 Mar 1;92(1):220-39.